Hot water economics  ·  AU households

Should you swap gas for a heat pump?

Model your real hot water use — showers, baths, household size, your city's climate — against your gas and electricity rates, including any free or off-peak window your heat pump can soak up. Everything recalculates live.

Household & hot water use

01

How much hot water your home actually draws each day.

Daily rhythm

02

When you draw hot water — and when the heat pump reheats — decides how cold the air is at heating time. A heat pump is far happier topping up in warm midday air than at 6am.

Cheaper power, but pre-dawn air is cold — so the heat pump uses more electricity for the same hot water. The calculator weighs both.

◖ off-peak · colder · lower COP☀ solar · warmer · higher COP
Advanced rhythm

Gap between the day's high and low. Bigger inland (Canberra), smaller on the coast (Sydney, Darwin).

Your climate

03

Cold-water inlet temperature sets how hard the heater works; air temperature sets your heat pump's efficiency. Both move month to month.

Avg air temp
Avg cold inlet

The two systems

04

Your two units. Defaults follow the AS/NZS 4234 standard (a 4-star reference gas heater) and conservative real-world COP. The modelling knobs sit under Advanced — leave them unless you know your numbers.

It's printed on the unit. 4★ is the standard's reference baseline.

Datasheet COPs are lab figures and not comparable between brands — to pin a real one, find your model in the Clean Energy Regulator register and use its STC count for your zone.

Advanced — heat pump model

The ambient temperature the datasheet COP was measured at.

Your energy prices

05

From a recent bill, or the Victorian Default Offer (ESC) / Energy Made Easy (AER) reference prices. Set how the heat pump is scheduled under Daily rhythm (02); here you set what each unit costs.

What on-demand heating pays.

Controlled load / overnight.

What you'd pay to switch, after STCs and any state rebate (Solar Victoria / Victorian Energy Upgrades).

Advanced — solar value & emission factors

Usually $0 — but if you'd otherwise export it, set this to your feed-in tariff (the income you give up).

NGA 2025, set from your state — tracks your city.

NGA natural gas combustion (~51.5 kg/GJ).

Running cost · head to headper year
Gas now
$—
— /day
VS
Heat pump
$—
— /day
You'd save
$—
Hot water demand
useful kWh/yr
Gas burned
MJ/yr input
HP electricity
kWh/yr input

Month-by-month cost

Winter is the real test — colder inlet water and a less efficient heat pump. This is where the gap narrows or holds.

Gas Heat pump

The bottom line

Simple payback
10-yr net benefit
Gas CO₂ now
CO₂ cut / year

Reading it: annual estimates, not a quote. Air and cold-inlet temperatures are modelled monthly from city climate norms. The electricity supply charge is excluded since you pay it either way. On emissions: solar self-consumption counts as zero, but on Victoria's coal-heavy grid (0.78) a heat pump run entirely on grid power can emit more than efficient gas — so the CO₂ result hinges on your solar share and falls every year as the grid cleans up.

Where the defaults come from

§

Everything in Advanced is pre-set from these. The visible fields are yours to fill from your own home and bills.

  • Heat pump & gas efficiency, hot-water load — AS/NZS 4234, the standard governments use to rate water heaters and set certificates. Look up your specific model's efficiency via the Clean Energy Regulator register (STCs by climate zone).
  • Star ratings & tested COP — GEMS Energy Rating registration database (energyrating.gov.au).
  • Emission factors — DCCEEW National Greenhouse Accounts Factors 2025: grid CO₂ set per state (VIC 0.78, NSW 0.66, SA 0.23, TAS 0.20 kg/kWh), gas ~0.185 kg/kWh.
  • Tariffs — ESC Victorian Default Offer (2025–26) and AER Energy Made Easy reference prices; your own bill is best.
  • Rebates — federal STCs, Solar Victoria, Victorian Energy Upgrades.

COP claims aren't standardised between brands, so datasheet figures run optimistic — the STC count is the fairer like-for-like.